An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Sharing in the Semiconductor Equipment Supply Chain

We study the demand forecast-sharing process between a buyer of customized production equipment and a set of equipment suppliers. Based on a large data collection we undertook in the semiconductor equipment supply chain, we empirically investigate the relationship between the buyer\u27s forecasting behavior and the supplier\u27s delivery performance. The buyer\u27s forecasting behavior is characterized by the frequency and magnitude of forecast revisions it requests (forecast volatility) as well as by the fraction of orders that were forecasted but never actually purchased (forecast inflation). The supplier\u27s delivery performance is measured by its ability to meet delivery dates requested by the customers. Based on a duration analysis, we are able to show that suppliers penalize buyers for unreliable forecasts by providing lower service levels. Vice versa, we also show that buyers penalize suppliers that have a history of poor service by providing them with overly inflated forecasts

The Critical Role of Public Charging Infrastructure

Editors: Peter Fox-Penner, PhD, Z. Justin Ren, PhD, David O. JermainA decade after the launch of the contemporary global electric vehicle (EV) market, most cities face a major challenge preparing for rising EV demand. Some cities, and the leaders who shape them, are meeting and even leading demand for EV infrastructure. This book aggregates deep, groundbreaking research in the areas of urban EV deployment for city managers, private developers, urban planners, and utilities who want to understand and lead change

Ship-Pack Optimization in a Two-Echelon Distribution System

Abstract In large distribution systems, distribution centers (DC) deliver some merchandize to their retail stores in size-specific packages, also called ship-packs. These ship-packs include cases (e.g., cartons containing 24 or 48 units), inners (packages of 6 or 8 units) or eaches (individual units). For each Stock Keeping Unit (SKU), a retailer can decide which of these ship-pack options to use when replenishing its retail stores. Working with a major US retailer, we have developed a cost model that balances DC handling costs, store handling costs and inventory-related costs at both the DC and the stores, and therefore can help to determine the optimum warehouse ship-pack for each SKU. We implement our model for a sample of 529 SKUs, and show that by changing ship-pack size for about 30 SKUs, the retailer can reduce its total cost by 0.3% -0.4%. Interestingly, we find that most of the cost savings occurs at the DC level

The Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey: Giant Planet and Brown Dwarf Demographics From 10-100 AU

We present a statistical analysis of the first 300 stars observed by the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey (GPIES). This subsample includes six detected planets and three brown dwarfs; from these detections and our contrast curves we infer the underlying distributions of substellar companions with respect to their mass, semi-major axis, and host stellar mass. We uncover a strong correlation between planet occurrence rate and host star mass, with stars M $>$ 1.5 $M_\odot$ more likely to host planets with masses between 2-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and semi-major axes of 3-100 au at 99.92% confidence. We fit a double power-law model in planet mass (m) and semi-major axis (a) for planet populations around high-mass stars (M $>$ 1.5M$_\odot$) of the form $\frac{d^2 N}{dm da} \propto m^\alpha a^\beta$, finding $\alpha$ = -2.4 $\pm$ 0.8 and $\beta$ = -2.0 $\pm$ 0.5, and an integrated occurrence rate of $9^{+5}_{-4}$% between 5-13 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. A significantly lower occurrence rate is obtained for brown dwarfs around all stars, with 0.8$^{+0.8}_{-0.5}$% of stars hosting a brown dwarf companion between 13-80 M$_{\rm Jup}$ and 10-100 au. Brown dwarfs also appear to be distributed differently in mass and semi-major axis compared to giant planets; whereas giant planets follow a bottom-heavy mass distribution and favor smaller semi-major axes, brown dwarfs exhibit just the opposite behaviors. Comparing to studies of short-period giant planets from the RV method, our results are consistent with a peak in occurrence of giant planets between ~1-10 au. We discuss how these trends, including the preference of giant planets for high-mass host stars, point to formation of giant planets by core/pebble accretion, and formation of brown dwarfs by gravitational instability.Comment: 52 pages, 18 figures. AJ in pres

Drosophila Nociceptors Mediate Larval Aversion to Dry Surface Environments Utilizing Both the Painless TRP Channel and the DEG/ENaC Subunit, PPK1

A subset of sensory neurons embedded within the Drosophila larval body wall have been characterized as high-threshold polymodal nociceptors capable of responding to noxious heat and noxious mechanical stimulation. They are also sensitized by UV-induced tissue damage leading to both thermal hyperalgesia and allodynia very similar to that observed in vertebrate nociceptors. We show that the class IV multiple-dendritic(mdIV) nociceptors are also required for a normal larval aversion to locomotion on to a dry surface environment. Drosophila melanogaster larvae are acutely susceptible to desiccation displaying a strong aversion to locomotion on dry surfaces severely limiting the distance of movement away from a moist food source. Transgenic inactivation of mdIV nociceptor neurons resulted in larvae moving inappropriately into regions of low humidity at the top of the vial reflected as an increased overall pupation height and larval desiccation. This larval lethal desiccation phenotype was not observed in wild-type controls and was completely suppressed by growth in conditions of high humidity. Transgenic hyperactivation of mdIV nociceptors caused a reciprocal hypersensitivity to dry surfaces resulting in drastically decreased pupation height but did not induce the writhing nocifensive response previously associated with mdIV nociceptor activation by noxious heat or harsh mechanical stimuli. Larvae carrying mutations in either the Drosophila TRP channel, Painless, or the degenerin/epithelial sodium channel subunit Pickpocket1(PPK1), both expressed in mdIV nociceptors, showed the same inappropriate increased pupation height and lethal desiccation observed with mdIV nociceptor inactivation. Larval aversion to dry surfaces appears to utilize the same or overlapping sensory transduction pathways activated by noxious heat and harsh mechanical stimulation but with strikingly different sensitivities and disparate physiological responses

The Renin Angiotensin System (RAS) mediates bifunctional growth regulation in melanoma and is a novel target for therapeutic intervention

Despite emergence of new systemic therapies, metastatic melanoma remains a challenging and often fatal form of skin cancer. The renin–angiotensin system (RAS) is a major physiological regulatory pathway controlling salt–water equilibrium, intravascular volume and blood pressure. Biological effects of the RAS are mediated by the vasoactive hormone angiotensin II (AngII) via two receptor subtypes, AT1R (encoded by AGTR1) and AT2R (encoded by AGTR2). We report decreasing expression and increasing CpG island methylation of AGTR1 in metastatic versus primary melanoma and detection in serum of methylated genomic DNA from the AGTR1 CpG island in metastatic melanoma implying that AGTR1 encodes a tumour suppressor function in melanoma. Consistent with this hypothesis, antagonism of AT1R using losartan or shRNA-mediated knockdown in melanoma cell lines expressing AGTR1 resulted in acquisition of the ability to proliferate in serum-free conditions. Conversely, ectopic expression of AGTR1 in cell lines lacking endogenous expression inhibits proliferation irrespective of the presence of AngII implying a ligand-independent suppressor function for AT1R. Treatment of melanoma cell lines expressing endogenous AT2R with either AngII or the AT2R-selective agonist Y6AII induces proliferation in serum-free conditions whereas the AT2R-specific antagonists PD123319 and EMA401 inhibit melanoma growth and angiogenesis and potentiate inhibitors of BRAF and MEK in cells with BRAF V600 mutations. Our results demonstrate that the RAS has both oncogenic and tumour suppressor functions in melanoma. Pharmacological inhibition of AT2R may provide therapeutic opportunities in melanomas expressing this receptor and AGTR1 CpG island methylation in serum may serve as a novel biomarker of metastatic melanoma

An updated visual orbit of the directly-imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b and prospects for a dynamical mass measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly-imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric ($e=0.53_{-0.13}^{+0.09}$) orbit at an intermediate inclination ($i=136_{-11}^{+10}$\,deg), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semi-major axis of $11.1_{-1.3}^{+4.2}$\,au and a period of $28.1_{-4.9}^{+17.2}$\,yr, assuming a mass of 1.75\,M$_{\odot}$ for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigated the potential of using absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51~Eri derived from a comparison of the {\it Hipparcos} and {\it Gaia} catalogues was found to be inconsistent at the 2--3$\sigma$ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs or the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using {\it Gaia} astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating {\it Gaia} measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended eight-year mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible ($>98$\% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the {\it Gaia} scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars, and a high mass for the planet ($\gtrsim3.6$\,M$_{\rm Jup}$).Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomical Journa

HD 165054: An Astrometric Calibration Field for High-contrast Imagers in Baade's Window

We present a study of the HD 165054 astrometric calibration field that has been periodically observed with the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI). HD 165054 is a bright star within Baade's Window, a region of the galactic plane with relatively low extinction from interstellar dust. HD 165054 was selected as a calibrator target due to the high number density of stars within this region (~3 stars per square arcsecond with H < 22), necessary because of the small field of view of the GPI. Using nine epochs spanning over five years, we have fit a standard five-parameter astrometric model to the astrometry of seven background stars within close proximity to HD 165054 (ρ < 2''). We achieved a proper motion precision of ~0.3 mas yr⁻¹ and constrained the parallax of each star to be ≾1 mas. Our measured proper motions and parallax limits are consistent with the background stars being a part of the galactic bulge. Using these measurements, we find no evidence of any systematic trend of either the plate scale or the north angle offset of GPI between 2014 and 2019. We compared our model describing the motions of the seven background stars to observations of the same field in 2014 and 2018 obtained with Keck/NIRC2, an instrument with excellent astrometric calibration. We find that the predicted position of the background sources is consistent with that measured by NIRC2, within the uncertainties of the calibration of the two instruments. In the future, we will use this field as a standard astrometric calibrator for the upgrade of GPI and potentially for other high-contrast imagers